Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

USD/INR EURO/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels 84.80-87.50 1.0800-1.1800 1.2800-1.3800 140.00-160.00 0.8200-0.9200
Sentiment against USD Positive Negative Negative Positive Positive
Forecast for the day 85.60-86.40 1.1475-1.1550 1.3485-1.3570 143.30-144.25 0.8075-0.8100

  • Spot rupee closed at 86.08/09 to a dollar level after opening at 86.14/15 level. The rupee opened sharply lower as crude oil prices shot up more than 8 overnight following Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran. However, during the day, the rupee found support at 86.22 level, on suspected dollar sales by RBI and exporters. Equity market benchmarks ended about 0.7 lower today.
  • DXY is trading lower at 98.25 level. Economic numbers took the back seat after Middle east tensions escalated after Israel made preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran has also begun to retaliate at the moment. As a result, the USD found itself to be the safe haven currency, followed by JPY and CHF.
  • Data released today showed that the seasonally adjusted Ind. Output in EZ fell by 2.4 m/m in April. Year-over-year, industrial output increased by 0.8 in the euro area and 0.6 in the EU. The Final CPI for May for Germany and France was confirmed at -0.2 m/m and -0,1 m/m respectively.
  • Markets are likely to remain choppy today as traders position for further developments on the Middle east tensions.
  • Important data releases scheduled today: US: PPI m/m; Core PPI m/m; Weekly Unempl. Claims;

Rupee plunged more than 50 paisa this morning, as risk sentiment was affected after Israel attacked Iran’s multiple nuclear strikes overnight. Fall in local unit was further supported by sharp surge in crude prices, which rose around 10 on worries about supply disruption. While writing this report rupee was trading at 86.03 levels, with support seen at 86.45 levels and resistance is at 85.55 levels for the day. Equity market benchmarks are trading more than 1 lower today.


Data released yesterday showed India’s retail inflation eased to a 75-month low of 2.82 in May, compared with 3.2 in April as food inflation eased below 1, for the first time in nearly four years. Sequentially, prices rose 0.2 m/m in May compared with 0.3 m/m rise in April.


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