• Spot rupee closed at 87.54/55 to a dollar level after opening at 87.59/60 level. The rupee strengthened to a high of 87.21 level on unwinding of long dollar positions by NDF players and suspected dollar selling by the RBI. Data released today showed that the HSBC India Mfg. PMI compiled by S&P Global, rose to 59.1 in July from 58.4 in June, slightly below a preliminary reading of 59.2. New orders increased at the fastest pace in nearly five years, buoyed by favourable market conditions and marketing efforts. That propelled output growth to a 15-month high. Equity market benchmarks saw a sharp selloff and ended about 0.8 lower. Dalal street closed lower for the fifth consecutive week.
• DXY is trading higher at 100.25 level. DXY is trading steady holding on to most of its overnight gains awaiting the US labour data to be released tonight. NFP is expected to show 102k job growth, a slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1 to 4.2, and solid wage gains of 0.3 mom.
• Data from Europe showed the HCOB Eurozone Mfg. PMI was confirmed at 49.8 in July 2025, up from 49.5 in June, marking the slowest contraction in the sector since July 2022 and signaling a move toward stabilization. Elsewhere, PMI readings improved but remained below the 50.0 threshold, signaling slower contraction. Germany’s PMI reached a near three-year high, while France and Austria recorded the weakest performance in the bloc. Eurozone CPI held steady at 2.0 y/y in July 2025, unchanged from June but slightly above market expectations of 1.9, according to preliminary estimates. This marks the second consecutive month that inflation has aligned with the ECB’s official target.
• Elsewhere, the UK Mfg. PMI rose to 48 in July 2025 from 47.7 in June, revised lower from the flash estimate of 48.2 – but aligned with intial market expectations. UK’s Nationwide HPI rose 2.4 y/y, 0.6 m/m in July 2025, above expectations and June’s 2.1y/y rise and 0.9 m/m drop in June.
• Important data releases scheduled today: US: Average Hourly Earnings; Non-Farm Payrolls change; Unempl rate; Final Mfg. PMI; ISM Mfg. PMI; ISM Mfg. Prices; Revised UoM Consumer sentiment; Const spending m/m;

Indian Rupee opened flatter note this morning at 87.60 levels, after testing its multi month low yesterday. Thanks to central bank who helped to limit rupee fall by intervening heavily in NDF market. At the time of writing this report, local unit was trading at 87.30 levels, with support seen at 87.75 levels, while resistance is at 87.05 levels. Equity market benchmarks have opened lower a tariff uncertainty hits sentiment.

DXY is trading higher at 100.03 level. US PCE prices offered little relief to policymakers as US PCE price index rose by 0.3 m/m in June 2025, the largest increase in four months, following an upwardly revised 0.2 gain in May and in line with expectations. The Core PCE index went up 0.3, marking its strongest monthly gain in four months in line with forecast. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching 2.6 in June from an upwardly revised 2.4 in May and above expectations of 2.5. Core PCE inflation held steady at 2.8, but the figure for May was revised higher to 2.8 from 2.7.