Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	94.25-97.50	1.1250-1.2100	1.2800-1.3800	150.00-162.50	0.7400-0.8300
Sentiment against USD	Neutral	Negative	Negative	Neutral	Neutral
Forecast for the day	94.40-94.90	1.1540-1.1620	1.3365-1.3435	159.70-160.60	0.7935-0.7975

Spot rupee ended stronger today at 94.53/54 to a dollar level after opening at 94.45/46 level. The rupee slipped steadily today following dollar buying importers and suspected RBI buying. Equity market benchmarks ended about 0.5 higher.
DXY is now trading aT 99.52 level as traders await the FOMC meeting outcome tomorrow. The Fed is not expected to hike rates in this meeting, but the Fed’s post meeting conference holds importance.
Forex majors are mostly trading flat. The British pound edged lower to $1.34 as traders digested a softer-than-expected inflation report ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. UK consumer price inflation unexpectedly held steady at 2.8 in May, below expectations of a rise to 3. Core inflation increased to 2.6, slightly under forecasts of 2.7, while services inflation accelerated to 3.7 from 3.2, broadly in line with expectations. The data suggested that underlying price pressures were less pronounced than feared, reinforcing the cautious, wait-and-see approach favoured by some Bank of England policymakers. The BOE is expected to keep rates steady.
From the Eurozone, Consumer price inflation held at 3.2 in May 2026, the highest since September 2023 and well above the ECB’s 2.0 target, led by energy costs. The core rate, excluding energy and food, climbed to 2.6 from 2.2, signalling broadening price pressures. EURUSD is trading steady at 1.1605 level.
Key data releases ahead: US: Retail sales m/m; Core Retail sales m/m; Pending Home sales m/m; Business inventories m/m; FOMC Meeting outcome.

Rupee opened higher at 94.45 levels as crude oil prices fell below $80/bbl. Equity market benchmarks are trading about 0.3 higher in early trades.

DXY retreated to 99.53 as crude oil prices slipped below $80/bbl and a series of softer-than-expected US economic releases reinforced concerns about slowing growth. Weakness in the housing sector was particularly evident, with housing starts plunging 15.4 month-on-month in May to 1.177 million units, the lowest level since May 2020 and well below market expectations. High mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand, prompting builders to cut prices, offer financing incentives, and slow speculative construction. Building permits also edged lower by 0.7, suggesting a cautious outlook for future residential construction activity.

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