Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	84.80-87.50	1.1200-1.2000	1.3200-1.4000	140.00-160.00	0.7800-0.8600
Sentiment against USD	Positive	Negative	Negative	Positive	Positive
Forecast for the day	85.65-86.10	1.1550-1.1670	1.3340-1.3435	148.00-149.10	0.8010-0.8040

Spot rupee closed at 86.08/09 to a dollar level after opening at 85.90/91 level. The rupee steadily depreciated today due to FII outflows and ended weaker. Equity market benchmarks ended about 0.4 today.
DXY is trading steady at 98.65 level. EURUSD is trading below 1.16 level. as EZ CPI was finalized at 2.0 y/y in June, slightly higher than May’s 1.9 y/y. Core CPI held steady at 2.3 for the second straight month.
In the UK, pay rolled employment fell by -41k in June, marking a second straight monthly contraction. Though May’s drop was revised to a milder -24k from an initial -109k, the overall picture still points to a softening labour market. Claimant count rose more than expected by 25.8k. Unemployment rate in the three months to May edged higher from 4.6 to 4.7.
Wage growth also lost some momentum, with median monthly pay rising 5.6 y/y in June, down from May’s 5.7 y/y. Average earnings growth in the three months to May slowed to 5.0 both with and without bonuses, with the latter still slightly hotter than the 4.9 expected. Meanwhile, inflation surprised to the upside in June, coming in at 3.6 versus a 3.4 forecast. The mixed signals create uncertainty for the Bank of England. Slower wage growth supports potential rate cuts, but sticky inflation could delay them. Traders have slightly scaled back expectations but still price in two cuts in 2025.
Important data releases scheduled today: US: Retail Sales m/m; Core Retail Sales m/m; Unemployment claims; Philly Fed Mfg. index; NAHB Housing Market index; Import prices; Business inventories; TIC Long Term Purchases

Rupee opened tad higher at 85.91 levels, after witnessing a volatile session yesterday due to SBI’s fundraising, which supported the rupee early on, however demand from FPIs and oil companies dented rupee sentiments on later day.

DXY is trading steady at 98.53 level. US Dollar consolidated on its gains yesterday. Reports emerged overnight suggesting US President Donald Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though Trump later denied this, saying it was “highly unlikely.”

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