Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	86.50-89.00	1.1400-1.1900	1.3000-1.3900	142.00-158.00	0.7800-0.8300
Sentiment against USD	Negative	Positive	Negative	Positive	Positive
Forecast for the day	88.35-85.70	1.1540-1.1630	1.3075-1.3185	154.85-155.50	0.7980-0.8020

Spot rupee ended at 89.49 level after opening at 88.69 level. The rupee sharply fell in afternoon trades, suspected to be stop losses triggered by NDF players and absence of RBI who have been defending the rupee. Equity market benchmarks ended about 0.5 lower today.
DXY is trading at 100.11 level. EURUSD is trading steady at 1.1532 to a dollar level holding to most of overnight gains. Data released today showed that Eurozone business activity lost a little momentum in November as PMI Composite edged down from 52.5 to 52.4. Mfg. slipped back into contraction at 49.7, down from 50.0, a five-month low. Services inched up from 53.0 to an 18-month high of 53.1. Mfg. conditions deteriorated in both Germany and France. PMI for Germany fell from 49.6 to 48.4 and France dropped to 47.8 from 48.8.
However, Services activity provided some buffer. Germany’s service-sector growth slowed (down from 54.6 to 62.7) but stayed comfortably positive. France returned to expansion (up from 48.0 to 50.8). With the services sector carrying far more weight in the Eurozone economy, the currency bloc is still on track for faster growth in Q4 compared with Q3.
From UK, retail sales delivered a sharp downside shock in October, falling –1.1 mom, well below expectations of a modest 0.1 increase. It was the first monthly decline since May and reflected broad weakness across supermarkets, clothing, and online retailers. Despite the poor monthly reading, retail sales in the three months to October were still up 1.1 compared with the prior three-month period. Also, UK’s private sector activity and Mfg. sector activity slowed in November as per Flash data releases.
Important data releases scheduled today: US: Flash Mfg. and Services PMI; Revised UoM Consumer sentiment; Inflation Expectations; Final Wholesale Inventories m/m.

Rupee opened marginally higher at 88.68 levels, compared to 88.72 previous close. Equity market benchmarks are trading about 0.1 lower in early trades.

DXY is trading steady at 100.17 level. USD strength faded mildly despite a stronger than expected US Non-farm payrolls report reflecting that the market has already priced in such a data. Fed Governor Barr, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee were in the news cautioning against a December rate cut.

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