• Spot rupee closed at 85.26/27 to a dollar level after opening at 85.18/19 level. Indian rupee witnessed a choppy trade today, as tensions at the border escalated after the terrorist attack in Kashmir. With the Government promising to avenge the heinous attack, markets are on the edge. The rupee, initially opened higher, but fell sharply to register a low of 85.6650 before dollar selling helped it to recover some ground. Equity market benchmarks also witnessed choppy trading. Both the benchmark indexes closed with about 0.75 losses.
• DXY is trading higher at 99.63 level. Dollar index is trading higher today on speculation that US and China could stitch a trade deal. However, there are no confirmed official information on this.
• There were no major data releases from Europe today. Data showed France’s Mfg. climate indicator rose to 99 in April 2025 from 96 in March, beating forecasts of 96 and nearing its long-term average of 100. It was the highest reading since May 2024. Sentiment has however worsened on the general production outlook. France’s business climate indicator inched lower to 96 in April from 97 in March, remaining below its long term average of 100. EURUSD has remained traded around 1.1350 level today.
• Meanwhile, sterling traded around $1.33 level after UK retail sales surprised to the upside in March, rising by 0.4 m/m, defying market f/c for a -03 m/m decline. Looking beyond the monthly figure, the broader quarterly performance painted an encouraging picture of consumer resilience. Retail sales volumes grew by 1.6 q/q 1.7 y/y in Q1. These results indicate that UK consumers remain relatively active despite broader economic uncertainties.
• From Japan, data showed Tokyo Core CPI surged to 3.4 y/y from 2.4 y/y, above f/c for 3.2 y/y. The more domestically focused core-core measure (excluding food and energy) also rose sharply, from 2.2 y/y to 3.1 y/y. Headline CPI jumped from 2.9 y/y to 3.5 y/y. With inflation gathering pace across key categories, market expectations are shifting toward a rate hike as soon as in June.
• Important data releases scheduled today: US: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment; Inflation expectations.

Rupee opened higher at 85.18 levels against yesterday’s closing of 85.27 levels. Equity market benchmarks are trading flat in the opening trades.

DXY is trading at 99.58 level today. Dollar’s recovery lost momentum as optimism over US-China trade talks faded. China’s Commerce Ministry poured cold water on any speculation of near term breakthrough, stating unequivocally that there are “absolutely no negotiations”, currently underway with the US on trade and stated that report of ongoing talks on trade issues is false.