Mecklai Graph of The Week

USD Weakness Drives GBPUSD To Multi Month High

22 Apr, 2025
Graph of the week

The GBP/USD currency pair is trading around 1.3370, supported by a weakened USD amid rising concerns over potential economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve's independence. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging immediate interest rate cuts in response to trade policy changes, has fuelled uncertainty. These remarks have undermined confidence in the Fed's autonomy, adding pressure on the dollar. Consequently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to 98.30, its lowest since March 2022, amid intensifying trade tensions with China and increasing investor anxiety over Trump’s proposed tariffs.


In contrast, the British Pound has gained strength, briefly surpassing $1.34 to reach a seven-month high at 1.3424 despite softer UK inflation data. March CPI figures showed a decline, with headline inflation falling to 2.6% y/y and Core inflation at 3.4%. This easing inflation has provided the Bank of England some flexibility in shaping monetary policy, prompting market participants to price in a high likelihood of rate cuts by year-end. UK 10-year gilt yields have dropped below 4.6%, and a significant rise in job cuts has reinforced expectations of monetary easing. Currently markets are focussed only on the travails of the US Dollar and US economy causing USD weakness across the board giving bullish sentiment to GBPUSD. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3430 and 1.3500, while support lies at 1.3300 and 1.3260. Clients are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data and Fed signals for further direction.