Daily FX Trends - Commentaries
USD/INR | EURO/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macro Support-Resistance Levels | 84.00-87.00 | 1.0900-1.1600 | 1.2700-1.3750 | 140.00-160.00 | 0.8000-0.8800 |
Sentiment against USD | Negative | Positive | Positive | Negative | Negative |
Forecast for the day | 85.25-85.60 | 1.1450-1.1580 | 1.1450-1.1580 | 143.20-144.35 | 0.8140-0.8190 |
- Spot rupee closed at 85.60/61 to a dollar level after opening at 85.43/44 level. The rupee ended weaker despite dollar weakness in international markets, due to suspected dollar demand due to FII/FPI outflows. Equity market benchmarks ended about 1.0 lower today.
- DXY is trading lower at 98.20 level. US Dollar extended further lower to a three-year low. USD has been weak against most major currencies. ECB Governing Council members Villeroy and Simkus spoke today and confirmed that the rate cycle has ended, but cautioned that the ECB should be pragmatic in their approach to rate decisions.
- GBPUSD edged slightly lower in today’s trade after data showed UK economy contracted 0.3 m/m in April, worse than the 0.1 decline expected, due to a 0.4 decline in the service sector. Production also shrank -0.6 m/m. Despite the poor April print, the broader picture remains more constructive. GDP expanded 0.7 in the three months to April compared to the prior three-month period.
- Important data releases scheduled today: US: PPI m/m; Core PPI m/m; Weekly Unempl. Claims.
Rupee continues to trade on positive note; opening 10 paisa higher at 85.42 levels against yesterday’s closing of 85.52 levels. DXY has fallen below 98.50 level, its lowest level since October 2022. However, rising crude oil prices are supporting the pair from sharp selloff. Equity market benchmarks are trading flat in early trades.
DXY is trading lower at 98.41 level after US inflation numbers for May came in below market expectations. Headline CPI rose just 0.1 m/m and 2.3 y/y in May, below market forecasts for 0.2 m/m and 2.4 y/y rise respectively. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also surprised to the downside with a 0.1 m/m rise against an expected 0.3 m/m. On an annual basis, Core CPI remained steady at 2.8 y/y. The data offered some relief to markets concerned about price pressures from tariffs and broader cost pass-through.