• The rupee came under pressure on reports that tension between India and Pakistan is escalating. This has forced corporate to hedge their import payments driving the rupee lower. Equity market benchmarks ended about 0.5 lower today.
• DXY is trading higher at 100.11 level today. USD rebounded today as signs of progress in talks between the US and major trading partners signalled that the White House is keen on not going forward with its reciprocal tariff package. The US and UK are expected to announce a trade deal later today while China will begin talks by the weekend. Also, overnight decision by the Fed to keep rates unchanged and signal prolonged patience underpinned the USD.
• Germany's trade surplus widened to EUR 21.1 billion in March 2025, up from an upwardly revised EUR 18 billion in February, above forecasts of EUR 19.1 billion, marking the largest surplus since last December. Exports grew by 1.1 mom to an 11-month high of EUR 133.2 billion in March, above expectations of 1, mainly driven by higher sales to the US and China. Importers fell to a three month low. Germany’s industrial production jumped 3.0 month-over-month in March 2025, rebounding from a 1.3 decline in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 0.8 increase. On an annual basis, output declined by 0.2, a significant improvement from a 4.0 drop in February and the slowest fall since November 2022. EURUSD is trading at 1.1290 level.
• Important data releases scheduled today: US: Weekly Unempl. Claims; Prel. Non farm productivity q/q; Prelim Unit labour cost q/q; Final Wholesale inventories m/m.

The rupee opened 20 paisa higher at 84.62 and is expected to trade cautiously, as investors monitor developments along the border. Meanwhile, international markets remain quiet after the Federal Reserve left its key interest rates unchanged, as expected. Equity market benchmarks are trading flat in early trade.

DXY is trading higher at 99.68 level today. US Dollar inched higher after the Fed held interest rates unchanged for the third time in a row. It was a unanimous vote. Fed Chair Powell stated that the Fed does not need to be in a hurry as it evaluates how Trump’s tariffs will affect inflation and unemployment. Powell also pointed out to uncertainty for the path of the economy is elevated in the wake of tariffs.